UDA Dominates November 27 By-Elections: What It Means for 2027

Wondering who won the most seats between UDA, ODM, and DCP? The answer is UDA. Yes. The November 27, 2025, by-elections across Kenya brought significant political developments, with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) emerging as the dominant party. These contests, held for a mix of parliamentary and County Assembly (MCA) seats, offered a snapshot of the political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections.

From the confirmed results, UDA secured eight seats, more than any other party. The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) claimed two ward-level seats, while the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) captured three parliamentary constituencies. This distribution not only reflects voter sentiment but also indicates potential alliances, regional strengths, and weaknesses that parties will need to address in the next general elections.

Confirmed November 27 By-Election Results

Seat Type	Electoral Area	Winner	Party	Vote Count	Source
Senate	Baringo County	Leonard Chemitei	UDA	–	Thestar
MP	Kasipul Constituency	Boyd Were	ODM	–
MP	Ugunja Constituency	Moses Omondi Okoth	ODM	–
MP	Magarini Constituency	Harrison Garama Kombe	ODM	–
MP	Banissa Constituency	Ahmed Maalim Hassan	UDA	–
MP	Mbeere North Constituency	Leonard Wa Muthende	UDA	15,802
MP	Malava Constituency	David Ndakwa	UDA	21,564
MCA	Purko Ward (Kajiado)	Amos Mpusia	UDA	2,805
MCA	Chesumei Ward	Vincent Kiplimo	UDA	–
MCA	Samburu North / Angata Nanyokie Ward	Isabella	UDA	–
MCA	Lake Zone Ward (Turkana)	UDA	UDA	–
MCA	Nanaam Ward (Turkana)	UDA	UDA	–
MCA	Kabuchai/Chwele Ward (Bungoma)	Eric Wekesa	Independent	–
MCA	Kariobangi North Ward (Nairobi)	David Wanyoike Warui	DCP	–
MCA	Narok Town Ward	Douglas Masikonte	DCP	–

Analysis: UDA, DCP, and ODM Performance

Looking at the confirmed results:

UDA clearly leads with eight confirmed seats, including parliamentary wins in Mbeere North, Malava, and Banissa, plus several MCA wards across different counties. This demonstrates the party’s ability to mobilize both urban and rural voters, consolidating a strong base ahead of 2027.
ODM secured three parliamentary seats, showing resilience in traditional strongholds. While the number of seats is fewer than UDA, the party remains influential, particularly in areas like Kasipul, Ugunja, and Magarini, signaling that it could still play a kingmaker role in coalition politics.
DCP won two MCA/ward seats — Kariobangi North and Narok Town. While the wins are modest, they highlight DCP’s growing local-level presence and potential for targeting urban wards in 2027.

Implications for the 2027 General Elections

The by-election results are not just a snapshot of local politics—they are also a bellwether for the 2027 general elections. Here’s why:

UDA’s Parliamentary Strength
Winning key parliamentary constituencies demonstrates UDA’s nationwide organizational capacity. If the party can maintain momentum, it could challenge for dominance in the National Assembly in 2027. Seats like Mbeere North and Malava indicate growing support even in counties outside UDA’s traditional base.
ODM’s Hold on Strongholds
While UDA is gaining ground, ODM’s ability to retain seats in strongholds like Kasipul and Ugunja shows that it still has loyal voter bases. ODM could leverage these constituencies to negotiate coalitions or maintain influence in parliament.
DCP’s Local Footprint
The DCP victories at the ward level suggest that smaller parties can carve out influence in urban centers. For 2027, DCP could become a key urban player, especially in Nairobi, Narok, and other towns, and influence close contests.
Voter Trends and Alliances
By-election outcomes often reflect local issues, candidate popularity, and party alliances. The November 27 results suggest that UDA may be the preferred party for voters seeking continuity, while ODM and DCP may focus on coalition strategies to offset UDA’s growing dominance.
Momentum and Morale
Winning by-elections gives parties momentum and boosts morale among grassroots organizers. For UDA, the victories reinforce its narrative as the party to beat, setting the stage for aggressive campaigning in 2026 and 2027.

Conclusion

The November 27 by-elections clearly indicate that UDA has emerged as the overall winner, securing the highest number of seats across parliamentary and ward levels. While ODM maintains influence in its strongholds and DCP makes modest inroads at the local level, UDA’s victories give it a strategic advantage heading into the 2027 general elections.

These results are a signal to all parties: to win in 2027, strong national campaigns must be backed by effective grassroots mobilization, strategic alliances, and candidates who can appeal across both urban and rural constituencies. The 2027 elections promise to be competitive, but UDA’s November 27 performance has firmly positioned it as a major force in Kenya’s political landscape.